An unlikely winner from the war: Pakistan’s mediation strategy in the Iran-US war

By Emmet Mythen

After months of escalation into a wider regional crisis, the US-Iran conflict has entered a fragile diplomatic phase following a memorandum announced in June 2026. Formally titled ‘the Islamabad memorandum’, the agreement has been possible due to the facilitation of Pakistan, deliberately positioning itself as a pivotal intermediary between Iran and the US. Leveraging its strategic position as a link between the adversaries, Pakistan has facilitated talks in its capital Islamabad and promoted a negotiated settlement. The country’s role in the conflict highlights the strategic opportunities mediation diplomacy offers for states seeking to improve their international influence and standing.

Pakistan may appear an unlikely choice for a trusted mediator, given its  on-going border conflict with Afghanistan and last year’s war with India.  Additionally, Pakistan’s credibility as a responsible international actor has faced scepticism in the past, owing to alleged affinity for Islamist militant groups and an unstable domestic environment. US President Donald Trump himself accused Pakistan of “lies and deceit” in 2018 over perceived disloyalty from its strategic partner. Pakistan has now taken a deliberate strategy to improve its diplomatic standing, building relations with an array of nations including the US, China, and Saudi Arabia. The cultivation of close personal ties between Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and General Amin Munir with Trump, alongside Pakistan’s demonstration of security capabilities in the clashes with India, has greatly improved Pakistan’s diplomatic presence in Washington D.C.

So far, Pakistan has avoided full alignment with the United States while maintaining diplomatic relations with Iran. Owing to shared cultural and religious histories, Iran trusts Pakistan sufficiently to act as an honest broker, allowing indirect lines of communication to be kept open through Pakistan. Additionally, the involvement of Qatar, previously the lead regional mediator, in the conflict has positioned  Pakistan as an alternative principal interlocutor between the warring actors.

The recent diplomacy efforts show mediation can offer strategic benefits for middle power states like Pakistan. Middle powers are characterised by limited power projection, but the use of comparative advantages to achieve greater regional or global influence. This can be through economic, geographic, or soft power means which expands a state’s issue-specific sway. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state with a large but developing economy, is an emerging middle power seeking to tilt the international system in its favour. With its unique geopolitical position between the US, Iran, and China, involvement in the mediation process can aid Pakistan’s international prestige and create an image of respectability. 

Domestic considerations also factor into Pakistan’s strategic evaluation of the benefits of aiding the termination of the conflict. The US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have had significant economic impacts on the Pakistani economy, dependent on imports of Gulf oil and gas. Facilitating a successful agreement would greatly benefit its own struggling economy and boost the government’s legitimacy amongst its domestic constituents.

Mediation allows middle powers to hedge against aligning with one power. The US-dominated unipolar system is fragmenting and shifting to a multipolar world, with greater competition between rival powers for regional and global hegemony. In this unstable environment, middle powers like Pakistan are pursuing a policy of multi-alignment, with the hope of avoiding falling into proxy power struggles between the great powers. By acting as a mediator between the US and Iran, Pakistan is practising a policy of ‘a friend to all, enemy to none’ and constructing an external image of neutrality and multi-alignment. 

As the global balance of power is changing, so too is the form diplomacy takes. States are turning away from traditional multilateralism through formal international organisations, to a more informal and personalistic diplomacy, built on individual relationships and bilateral engagement. It is in this context that Pakistan has emerged as an important regional actor, its leaders having made a concerted effort to gain the favour of the current US administration. Diplomacy is increasingly conducted on transactional terms, with interstate cooperation occurring on the basis of economic and geopolitical benefit. Pakistan may hope to receive future economic or military rewards from the US if a settlement is successfully reached.

The announcement of a preliminary U.S.–Iran peace agreement in June 2026, reportedly facilitated in part through Pakistani mediation efforts, has elevated Islamabad’s diplomatic visibility. While the agreement remains provisional and negotiations are expected to continue, Pakistan’s involvement demonstrates how emerging middle powers can leverage mediation to gain international influence. Rather than shaping outcomes through military or economic dominance, Pakistan has utilised its position as intermediary between rival states as a soft power tool to advance its national interests.

However, Pakistan’s attempts to bridge the divide between Iran and the US, is not without risks. The status of mediator does not prevent states being incorporated into escalating conflict, as Qatar and Oman have learned. The delicate position Pakistan is holding between its strategic partner the US and neighbour Iran, while balancing relations with China and Middle Eastern states, requires walking a geopolitical tightrope. Escalation of the conflict could have spill-over effects on Pakistan’s westerly border, while tensions remain high with both Afghanistan and India. In this environment, Pakistan may struggle to maintain the current strategic policy of soft power projection and multi-alignment. Yet if Pakistan can come out of the conflict relatively unscathed and with an improved international standing, it will provide an example to other emerging middle powers of the opportunities diplomatic mediation offers in an increasingly fragmenting world. 

Image source: Torok, D. (2025, September 25). President Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan in the Oval Office [Photograph]. White House. Wikimedia Commons.